U.S. Economy Added 209,000 Jobs in July — Live Analysis

Updates

 HIGHLIGHTS
40m

Analysis: On Track for a December Rate Hike

1h

Financials Push Dow, S&P 500 Higher

1h

What Did We Learn About Wage Growth?

1h

Drop in Unemployment Rate: All About the Rounding

See only Highlights

31m

Give Us Your Feedback

Thanks for joining our coverage of the employment report this morning. We’re done for today.

If you were here while we were live, did you notice our experimental preview notifications? They looked like this:

If you saw them, please take a few minutes to tell us what you thought in our short survey.

40m

Analysis: On Track for a December Rate Increase

The Federal Reserve isn’t expected to raise rates again until December, and it will have several more jobs reports to study before that last policy meeting of the year, in addition to new data on inflation, consumer spending and economic output.

But July’s strong gains in hiring and the slight decline in the jobless rate keep the Fed on track to begin slowly shrinking its balance sheet this fall and then to raise short-term interest rates after that for the third time this year.

READ FULL ARTICLE

1h

Financials Push Dow, S&P 500 Higher

Shares of banks and insurers are leading gains in the U.S. stock market early Friday. Financials are again moving in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield, which rose after Friday’s jobs report.

Higher yields bode well for lending profitability.

The S&P 500 is now up 0.1% for the day and the week. Financials are the best-performing sector in the broader index Friday, rising 0.8% and extending their gains for the week. JPMorgan Chase &Co.and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are each up more than 1%, and are the two biggest gainers in the Dow industrials, adding 26 points. The Dow would be in the red Friday without them, but with them, it is now on pace to rise more than 1% this week after topping 22000 for the first time ever on Wednesday.

1h

What Did We Learn About Wage Growth?

Americans’ take-home pay is rising but only modestly, a trend that continues to confound economists.

July’s jobs report affirmed the stasis, showing that average hourly earnings rose 2.5% from a year ago, and in line with the average seen since the start of 2016.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s economists frame the issue in terms of economic theory that expects a tighter labor market will eventually force employers to pay workers more:

“The fact that the unemployment rate continues to slide without acceleration in wages remains a puzzle.

This could reflect a variety of factors including low productivity growth, employee insecurity about the health of the labor market, skill mismatch and sector specific stories.These factors likely will continue to be in play, but we think that it is only a matter of time before there is a modest move higher in wage growth. The bigger uncertainty is whether or not this translates to consumer price inflation.”

And here’s Michael Shaoul, chairman and CEO of Marketfield Asset Management:

“There is no obvious weakening of overall wage increases in recent months, but equally no sign that overall wage growth is starting to accelerate.

Although the FOMC would clearly be more comfortable with wages growing faster we do not view the current situation as a meaningful barrier to further policy tightening.”

1h

VIX Falls After Jobs Report

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, fell 4.1% to 10.01 after the release of the jobs report. The volatility gauge, often called the stock market’s “fear gauge,” has closed below 10 more times this year than in any other since the VIX’s inception.

Aug 4, 2017 at 10:02 am ET

Economists React: ‘A Banner Jobs Report’

A roundup of early reactions from economists and analysts to Friday’s jobs report.

READ FULL ARTICLE

Aug 4, 2017 at 9:56 am ET

Drop in Unemployment Rate: All About the Rounding

The unemployment rate technically fell from 4.4% in June to 4.3% in July, but the decline is actually much smaller than that. Barclays Economist Michael Gapen explains in his analysis of the report: “The unemployment rate to three decimals was virtually unchanged at 4.350% versus 4.357% last month, but after rounding fell by one-tenth to 4.3%”

Aug 4, 2017 at 9:52 am ET

The July Jobs Report in 10 Charts

Slicing and dicing the latest data on the U.S. labor market with a series of interactive charts.

READ FULL ARTICLE

Aug 4, 2017 at 9:46 am ET

Give Us Your Feedback

Thanks for joining our coverage of the employment report this morning. Tell us what you think of our experimental live preview notifications in our short survey.

Aug 4, 2017 at 9:41 am ET

Breaking Down Unemployment by


Facebooktwitterredditpinterestlinkedintumblrmailby feather